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Thoughts on the short list

On Friday, the USEF released  partial short list for the WEGs, narrowing the list of potential horses to 11 names along with several that might be named after Luhmuhlen.

Buck Davidson and BallyNoe Castle RM (11th Burghley 09, 15th Rolex 09)
Buck Davidson and My Boy Bobby (3rd Rolex 09)
Phillip Dutton and The Foreman (2nd Rolex 05, 2nd Burghley 05, 6th Rolex 10)
Phillip Dutton and TruLuck (4th Burghley 09, 9th Rolex 07)
Phillip Dutton and Woodburn (12th Rolex 09, 9th Rolex 08, 2nd Rolex 10)
Will Faudree and Pawlow (15th Rolex 10)
Becky Holder and Courageous Comet (since '07 - 2nd Rolex 08, 42nd Olympics 08, R Burghley 09, 3rd Rolex 10)
Boyd Martin and Neville Bardos (9th Rolex 08, 4th Rolex 10)
Boyd Martin and Remington XXV (12th Rolex 10)
Karen O'Connor and Mandiba (E Burghley, 44th Olympics, 7th Rolex 10)
Amy Tryon and Leyland (13th Rolex 09, 14th Burghley 09)

(1) If you have been reading Eventing Nation, there were no surprises with short list.  After Rolex, I wrote that 13 horses had separated from the pack: Woodburn, The Foreman, TruLuck, Neville, Remington, Comet, Mandiba, Pawlow, Leyland, Bobby, Ballynoecastle, Twizzel, and Connaught.  11 of those horses made the short list, and Twizzel will be on the list with a good performance at Luhmuhlen.  Phillip's blog explained that Connaught was scratched from Jersey because he wasn't quite right.

(2) The short list is very short.  There are 11 horses but just 7 riders are on the list and the US will send 6 riders to the WEGs (4 team, 2 individual).  This means that we already have a pretty clear picture of what the team will look like.  It also means that the second and even third most impressive pair at Luhmuhlen has a legitimate shot to go to the WEGs, depending on how things shake out.

(3) The most important thing moving forward for short listed pairs is keeping the horse healthy.  There's a mentality among riders that the last sound horses standing are going to Kentucky, and that's always the reality before major international competitions.  From this point forward, more than anything, soundness will pick the team that represents the USA at the World Equestrian Games.

(4) Let's just get this out in the open--Buck and Phillip are virtual locks to make the team.  If we could send riders on multiple horses, we'd probably send Buck and Phillip on all 5 of their horses on the list.  

(5) The team suggested how much they want Boyd by short listing Remington as well as Neville.

(6) If you put a gun to my head right now and forced me to pick six names, I'd go with BallyNoe Castle, Woodburn, Neville, Mandiba, Leyland, and Twizzel.  We will have much more with the list later this week.  Go eventing.

14 Comments

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What does everyone predict for the Canadians after their exceptional spring performances?

I'm also keeping an eye on those Canadians. With 4 Canadians in the top 10 at Rolex they certainly came to make their mark! Also, what are your thoughts on Rock on Rose not making the short list with Boyd? I'm interested that she placed higher than Remington at Rolex and had quite a good showing at The Fork but is not on the list.

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BUT....soundness....of those horses you listed....if history is any teacher, we need to look at a 20 percent attrition rate. Which ox will be gored by September? And what ox will take it's place? I would rather have several horses on that list than some of the 2nd horses listed for the riders with multiples. But imagine the outcry if the main horse is unsound, the backup is sound, and you get passed over for another pair. They must be pretty sure the first pick horse is going to stay sound.

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John, curious your resoning why BallyNoe Castle over My Boy Bobby?

Any thoughts why Remington over Rock on Rose making the list for Boyd?

I had the same question- why Remington over Rock on Rose? But for Buck's horse, my thought is that Ballynoe Castle may have an easier time w/ the endurance for the speed/distance on the 4 star XC.

I picked Ballynoe Castle "Reggie" over Bobby at this stage in the game comments I have heard from the Davidson camp more than anything. Bobby outperformed Reggie when they went head to head at Rolex '09 and Bobby is an extraordinary horse. But, as vegabondrider suggested, BallynoeCastle has a more suitable build for the 4* training and XC. Word is that Reggie is the best horse Buck has competed, and I think without a doubt that we have yet to see his best performance.

I don't want to get into the Remington vs. Lusty issue too much, but I was surprised to see that Lusty sent in an application for the WEGs. I do think Lusty has a lot more upside than Remington. We will have a lot more about the team selections over the next few days.

WOODBURN! WOO-HOO!!!!

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JMO, but I still don't understand Amy and Leyland... based on their Rolex round and their USEA record suggests that this year for them has been mediocre. That further indicates to me that the pickin' is slim...

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I still like Becky with Comet, as long as they can stay sound (how many times will we hear that phrase until september!!) I feel like they still have not yet had their moment to shine.

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Leyland makes total sense to me assuming both he and Amy are healthy. He went clean around Rolex and Burghley last year. Outside of Philip's horses (and maybe Nevil), he's the only horse on the above list that I trust will get around on cross country. Amy's had some knee trouble this year which explains the uneven schedule but if she's healthy, I'd put money on her and Leyland taking one of the team spots.

I love Comet and Becky's awesome but I don't trust them on the team. Maybe take a gamble and use them as one of the two individuals. Buck's horses have a good shot at finishing well, but they've both looked beyond tired at least once at the end of a 4 star. I don't remember if it was Reggie at Burghley or Bobby at Rolex, but I didn't think he was going to finish-the last jumps were hard to watch. Wouldn't it be funny if he ended up riding Cruise Lion.

This is all probably moot anyway. We'll be lucky if 6 of those horses including Will Coleman's horse are sound and ready to go when WEG comes along.

I like Will and Pawlow, despite Ernie's lack of 4 star experience.

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I'm impatiently waiting to see how Will and Twizzel do at Luhmuhlen - love this pair!

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Can anyone explain to me why the short list horses have to run at Chatt Hills 2-3 weeks before the WEG? Doesn't this seem like asking for trouble? Those horses are not going to learn anything from that course and might suffer an injury that would keep them from competing.

Would sooo take Comet over Mandiba. To me Mandiba is a wild card in the xc, he just never looks happy doing it. karen, for all her skill looks like she is getting toothpaste out of an empty tube.

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